While no major policy measures were announced, today’s Spring Statement comes against a particularly unstable geopolitical backdrop, as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government’s official independent forecaster, warned that the conflict in Iran could inflict a ‘very significant’ shock on both the global and UK economies.
Reeves delivered a deliberately restrained statement and emphasised that the government has the ‘right economic plan’ for an uncertain world. She said it is the government’s duty to ‘secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.’
However, the OBR, which released its latest forecasts alongside Reeve’s statement, lowered its UK growth projection for 2026 to 1.1 per cent, down from 1.4 per cent in last year’s Budget, while upgrading estimates for later years: 1.6 per cent in both 2027 and 2028, and 1.5 per cent in 2029 and 2030. GDP per person is expected to grow by 1.1 per cent a year over the 2026 to 2030 period.
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Inflation is now expected to be 2.3 per cent this year, down from the previous estimate of 2.5 per cent. However, rising oil and gas prices following strikes in Iran could increase inflation, potentially limiting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
Markets have already reacted to current instability. The FTSE 100 dropped more than 3 per cent, its sharpest fall since last April’s tariff turmoil, while short-term government borrowing costs recorded their steepest rise since October 2024. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2 per cent, the S&P 500 lost 2 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite slid 2.1 per cent. Brent crude climbed 7 per cent to $83.20 a barrel.
Spending decisions are expected to add £6bn to borrowing by 2030/31. Compared with the Autumn, borrowing is projected to run lower in each year beyond 2026/27, with public sector net debt around £22bn lower per year across the five-year forecast period. The Chancellor’s fiscal headroom has increased to £23.6bn in 2029/30 — a buffer that could give the government more flexibility in the Autumn Budget but could be affected by rising energy costs.
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While Reeves did not set out any new policies, she said that later this month she would outline ‘three major choices that will determine the course of our economy into the future.’
What this means for UHNWs
For Charles Russell Speechlys partner Sally Ashford, almost four months on from the last Budget and 16 months since the changes to inheritance tax relief were announced, ‘there have been numerous “tweaks” to the proposals, increasing the uncertainty and anxiety for clients.’
Ashford commented that the lack of major announcements in the statement is due to the fact that it is ‘designed to promote stability and is the Chancellor’s opportunity to show that her policies have had a positive impact, although the rapidly changing economic and political backdrop suggests otherwise.’
‘Careful planning will be essential in order to ensure arrangements remain fit for purpose as policy and market conditions evolve,’ she added.
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Robbie Hewitt, wealth planner, and Jeremy Croysdill, executive director of wealth planning, both of Brown Shipley, noted that the Spring Statement largely maintained the framework for long-term planning. There were no further changes announced to the plans to bring pensions into taxable estates, set to start from April 2027. They said: ‘Whilst we’re still awaiting clarification on the administration of this – it’s definitely not too early to start planning for this change.’
They also highlighted the implications of dividend policy adjustments, pointing out that the increase in dividend rates from 6 April will go ahead and adding that business owners who can control their dividend payments could benefit from the current tax rates by accelerating dividends before this April.
On reliefs for property, they confirmed that there were no further changes to Business Property Relief (BPR) or Agricultural Property Relief (APR). They said: ‘It still stands that from the 6th of April, the BPR limit will be £2.5m (transferrable between spouses). Those who have qualifying assets should get their skates on – they may still have time to engage with planning before these are implemented.’#
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The updated fiscal outlook released by the OBR has also prompted attention for its effect on capital gains. According to the experts, the OBR’s forecasts show a significant increase in the estimated Capital Gains Tax (CGT) take compared to the Autumn Budget 2025. They highlighted that between 2025-26 and 2030-31, CGT is now predicted to collect £19.9 billion more than previously estimated, with receipts for 2030-31 expected to rise to £34.9 billion, a £5.1 billion increase over prior forecasts.
Adding to this perspective, Robert Brodrick of Payne Hicks Beach noted: ‘Today’s Spring Statement was notable more for what it didn’t include than what it did. For private clients, there were no immediate headline tax increases or radical reforms, but that shouldn’t be mistaken for a benign landscape.’
He added: ‘Frozen tax thresholds and ongoing inheritance tax changes mean families are still facing a steadily rising burden through fiscal drag. The absence of new measures offers stability but nothing to tempt back those who have left, and it is a reminder that proactive estate and succession planning is more important than ever.’
For Partner in the private client team at BDO Elsa Littlewood, the stability of the Spring Statement ‘may be of some comfort to ultra-high net worth clients. After a period of significant policy overhaul with changes to the non-dom and inheritance tax regimes, a spell of calm will be welcomed.’
That said, experts from the Spear’s tax indices stress that proactive planning remains essential, particularly for those with large portfolios or complex wealth structures.
