When leading geopolitical strategist Tina Fordham is asked by business executives and board members when things are going back to normal, her answer is simple.
‘It isn’t,’ she says.
Giving one of the keynote speeches at Spear’s 500 Live on 6 May, the founder of geopolitical strategy firm Fordham Global Foresight set the tone for the day’s discussions – and the world at large.
The year started with a ‘bang’, according to Fordham. The US government’s capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, US President Donald Trump’s comments on potentially annexing Greenland and the ongoing war in Iran have all influenced politics and shaped investor outlooks.
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‘Geopolitical risk is a structural change in trend,’ she said. ‘It’s not noise and it’s not temporary. Waiting for the dust to settle actually is missing out on investment opportunities, as well as exposing yourself to downside risks.’
Fordham has advised political leaders, institutional investors and military generals on the effects of global events. She was appointed to the first United Nations High-Level Panel on Women’s Economic Empowerment in 2016 by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, and served as a senior adviser in the UK Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit.
Advisers should fully embrace geopolitical risk as part of their investment strategies, argued Fordham, asking themselves: ‘Are geopolitical developments going to move the needle? Are they going to result in changes to the way that industries and countries and asset classes work together? And what do we need to do about it?’
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Shrewd investors have already been asking themselves these questions, Fordham noted, and as a result have benefited from asset classes that have been directly affected by geopolitics and real-world risks.
Alternative investments, notably gold, rare minerals and AI investments accessed through private equity have all performed well in recent months. Gold was seen as a safe haven by many during economic and political uncertainty at the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026, having reached record highs of around $5,600 per ounce on 28 January – a price which soon fell after a mass sell-off.
While it is true that many geopolitical events have been caused or influenced by President Trump, Fordham noted that his presidency does not represent a blip in history.
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Referencing the upcoming midterm elections in the US, Fordham argued that the volatile global geopolitical environment will not end with the election of more Democrats into Congress.
‘We all want things to return to simpler times,’ she said. ‘The sense that things might be slowing down, or returning to some kind of stability, is not something that is on the cards right now.’
The US is still asserting its dominance globally, Fordham argued, and investors are following the same behavioural patterns as other countries’ governments as a way of dealing with this changing power structure. As the EU is preparing to become more self-dependent in terms of AI and defence infrastructure, and Canada is doing more internal trading as a result of US hostility, investors too should consider diversifying away from US dependency.
‘Why?’ Fordham asked. ‘Two words: Kill switch. The idea that the United States would be able to deactivate F-35 missiles or the Microsoft Cloud, where all of our data and all of our businesses are, is now something that is taken very seriously at the policy level.’
[See also: Bernard Arnault latest billionaire to comment publicly on Iran conflict]
There have been surprise benefits for some countries under the ever-tight grasp of the US’s foreign policy, Fordham noted. Iran has seen around 23,000 firms and factories affected by the war, according to the Guardian; however, the country’s control over the Strait of Hormuz has given it a faster and more effective hold on geopolitics than their more than 40 years of nuclear ambitions, Fordham argued.
‘Now everybody else wants their own choke point toll where they can extract fees,’ she said.
Throughout her speech, Fordham emphasised that there is no preset response to geopolitical tension, but advisers, investors and leaders need to keep up with the increasing pace and volatility of today’s world.
Paraphrasing a quote from Russian revolutionary leader Vladimir Lenin, Fordham said: ‘The world is spinning faster than ever.’
Spear’s 500 Live is the premier live event for private client professionals and leading figures from the private wealth and family office ecosystem. The 2026 edition took place on 6 May at The Savoy in London.
Spear’s 500 Live was presented in association with our partners the Charities Aid Foundation, CMB Monaco, Guernsey Finance, HCA Healthcare UK, Payne Hicks Beach, Riverstone, Scott Dunn Private and Stewardship.
For commercial enquiries concerning Spear’s events, contact shady.elkholy@spearswms.com.
