The man tasked with making investment decisions on behalf of Coutts clients has expressed confidence in large corporates capacity to continue to generate strong earnings, despite the threat of further geopolitical shock in the Middle East and afar.
In the wake of geopolitical shocks, many nations, businesses and people were creating contingency plans which would made them stronger overall, argued the historic British bank’s CIO Fahad Kamal, at the launch of its 2026 mid-year investment outlook.
‘I guarantee you that five years from now, the dependence of anybody on the Strait of Hormuz is going to be much much much less,’ he said. ‘Everybody is going to have a plan B, a plan C, a plan D, a plan E.’
‘There’ll be further shock, but […] we continue to see a really positive backdrop for earnings,’ he added. ‘Consumers are strong, corporations are stronger than the balance sheets. Everything is looking pretty good.’
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Coutts, which was founded in 1692 and has counted Queen Elizabeth II and Oliver Twist author Charles Dickens among its clientele is part of the NatWest Group. In February 2026, the group agreed to acquire the £68.6 billionaire wealth manager Evelyn Partners, which is expected to come under the Coutts brand, creating one of the largest UK wealth managers. This acquisition would give the two wealth managers a combined AUM of around £117 billion.
The report highlighted that US-listed companies’ average earnings growth was around 27 per cent year-on-year over the first three months of 2026, which was more than double the 12 per cent predicted growth. This was driven by a pro-risk mood among investors, something which Kamal expects to endure, despite instability on the global stage.
Markets at the forefront of AI infrastructure are particularly promising for investors, the report noted. South Korea, a notably technology-heavy market, has seen its stock exchange (Kospi) go up more than 100 per cent so far in 2026.
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However, the report also noted that some AI investments come with a high level of risk. A small number of companies accounted for 62 per cent of AI’s market performance so far in 2026 – in such a concentrated industry, the overall market could be affected by the poor performance of one company, the report noted. Furthermore, with energy prices having risen amid the US-Iran conflict, emerging market countries are sensitive to hiking energy costs, Coutts’ report added.
Investors should have their fingers on the pulse of geopolitical and market trends, Kamal noted, however being too early to invest carries its own risks.
‘Being early means being wrong. You’ve got to be right , and at the right time,’ he said.
