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August 13, 2013

The eurozone solution is in Germany's hands

By Spear's

Merkel has in fact already given us her answer: ’More Europe is the solution’

Europe is bathed in sunshine and politicians and bureaucrats are doing nothing – thank God! – except lying on the beach and thinking… about the German elections on 22 September.

Spear’s, as usual, can bring you the result before any other media organ: Merkel will be re-elected. How do we know this? You only have to look at the arithmetic of how things stood in June 2013:

Merkel: CDU + CSU + FDF = 46 per cent

Opposition: SPD + Greens = 39 per cent, with Alternative für Deutschland 2-3 per cent, 5 per cent limit.

The Greens are the only viable alternative, but Merkel stole their clothes off the beach while they were swimming in their nuclear-free waters: Merkel announced that Germany will not do nuclear. End of debate.

The question is: what will Merkel do about the ongoing eurozone problem? Greece has an €11 billion shortfall in its annual budget now; Cyprus and Portugal need another fix; France is going down economically, with the hapless President Hollande not in command; Holland is struggling with recession; Italy is in internal turmoil with another election coming soon; Spain thinks it has hit bottom, but who knows; and all the banks, bar a handful, are bust. What has caused this? The single currency, administered from Frankfurt-am-Rhein.

Read more: Who can stop Merkel singing the PIGS, Cyprus and all?

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Merkel has in fact already given us her answer: ‘More Europe is the solution,’ meaning political and fiscal union. How will this be achieved? Simple: any country needing more bail-out money will get it, but their finances will be run by a German bureaucrat, who will be despatched with Berlin’s approval to control the purse-strings. The existing Troika – the IMF, the EU and the ECB – will breathe a collective sigh of relief, as Germany finally takes over. That is all this election is about.

Merkel has the firepower: Germany has racked up a trade surplus in the eurozone, over the last decade, of €100 trillion-plus. The late Rt Hon Nicholas Ridley was sacked for saying the Maastricht Treaty was a German plot to take over Europe without firing a shot. He was right, and his critics were wrong – €100 trillion wrong!

The euro is going to be intact and with us for another five years at least. There’s only one country, however, that can end this economic nonsense by pulling out: France, funnily enough, or perhaps at a pinch, Italy, or the two together. Spain is too proud to admit any error.

Read more: UKIP’s Euro-lookalikes

Italy’s hope, post-Berlusconi, is the Grillini. The one most likely to take France out of Europe is Marine Le Pen, who, don’t forget, fought the last election under the banner France Bleu: she’s positioning herself as Jeanne d’Arc II for the 2017 French elections.

Read more from Stephen Hill


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